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China Between A Rock And A Hard Place As Tibet Refuses To Go Away

With the Dalai Lama visiting President Barack Obama this afternoon, China is increasingly finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place as the situation concerning the handling of the Tibet issue continues to play out in a manner not conducive to Beijing’s desires. Questions now need to asked; not just externally, but within China as well concerning the sustainability of the current Tibet policy the government is deploying. One thing seems apparent, despite China’s newfound wealth, membership of the WTO and hosting of the Olympics, the Tibet issue is not going to fade away.

China’s wealth in Asia has led on occasion to it using this as a diplomatic tool to get its way politically. Likewise, it has also used veto power it holds within several organizations – such as the Asian Development Bank – to block funding it does not approve of. Its consistent blocking of ADB funding to India for the development of Arunachal Pradesh for example, a northern Indian state that borders Tibet, inhibits growth in one of Asia’s poorer areas. All ADB members approved the loan. China, with veto power, did not, insisting it is disputed territory, part of Tibet and does not fall under the jurisdiction of the Indian government to administer. Historically however the region has never been under Chinese control. Such acts win China few friends regionally, and it infuriates India, China’s most powerful neighbor.

China has also been courting smaller Himalayan countries close to Tibet. Nepal, for example, whose Maoist insurgents are politically close to China, for the first time in centuries has positioned Prime Ministerial visits to Beijing above visits to New Delhi in importance. Nepal is drawing closer to China than to India, with whom it is more historically, culturally and ethnically related. Politics, trade and money are offered. The buying of diplomacy by China is going some way to assist with the acceptance of the Chinese policy over Tibet issue on the borders with Nepal. However, beyond countries such as these, the policy does not appear to be making much headway. China’s leadership must have thought it would be so different. But financial power does not necessarily translate into the desired results, and can backfire.

With membership of the WTO, a long sought after goal finally achieved, the accumulation of massive foreign reserves giving it financial clout, and the global prestige of holding the Olympics, recent times must have appeared to the Chinese leadership as all being well with the national image and political credibility overseas. It is learning however, that money and trade alone cannot purchase political will. Here, China needs to have a serious rethink.

As the Dalai Lama sits down with President Obama today, the Chinese seethe. Regarded as a “splittist,” he remains anathema to China. Yet in Tibet, still today, he continues to be regarded as the true leader of the region by the indigenous population. Its people, regardless of whatever the Chinese may suggest, remain loyal to their culture and accordingly, to the Dalai Lama as spiritual leader.

When China stopped purchasing Tibetan blessings to legitimize its emperors – a historic convenience first conveyed by the Dalai Lama to assist legitimize the then rule of the dominant Mongolians and later transferred to China as the regional balance of power shifted – with Mao’s infamous “Religion is poison” statement to the young Dalai Lama, Tibet’s fate was sealed. With no need for China to obtain legitimacy from the Dalai Lama, Tibet found itself suddenly unable from a political, religious and military perspective to sustain its own independence. With the Dalai Lama ensconced, together with the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamsala, China now instead views the Dalai Lama as an insurrectionist and subversive, acting against the interests of the Chinese state while being based in India.

However, how his subversion is explained given his previous role as a leader chosen by well-known historical processes, unopposed by China at the time of his coronation, does not quite add up. Nonetheless, China today views the continued hosting of the Dalai Lama by India as a hostile act, a situation that has lead recently to continuous border incursions by China into India in a show of continuing harassment over the hosting of a subversive regime. The status quo as such, has been maintained in this manner since 1959 with the Dalai Lama’s arrival in India. It has also, it should be noted, sparked regional conflicts and border wars between China and India in the past, the most recent being in 1962. Tensions and distrust between the two sides continue as India found itself, following the Chinese annexation of Tibet with an entirely new government to deal with over territorial issues it had long negotiated with Lhasa and the Dalai Lama directly. It has proven an often bumpy ride for India to deal with a Communist ideology on its borders as opposed to the previously Buddhist one.

However, despite the contentious history, times have now moved on. China has invested huge sums of money into Tibet, including building the highest rail service in the world, linking the region directly with China’s national rail system. Tibetans may now easily trade with the rest of China, and vice versa. Airports and hotels have been developed, and an influx of both Chinese and foreign tourists regularly make the trip. Conversely, Tibet in many ways is more open now than it has ever been. It is easier to get to, safer, more secure. However, the Tibetans do not generally regard themselves as Chinese, and do not regard them as legitimate custodians of Tibetan culture. It remains hard for the Communist Party to justify itself as guardians of Tibetan culture, which itself is strongly religious, while at the same time, maintaining an official policy of atheism.

The implications of this are shortly to become apparent. The Dalai Lama is now 75, and will inevitably pass away within the next few years. When that happens, China will face a massive problem over the naming of his successor. It is likely the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile will find a successor residing outside China. Precedence exists. The fourth Dalai Lama was found not in Tibet but in Mongolia. China meanwhile would be expected to resist the discovery of a Dalai Lama named by the Tibetan government-in-exile and to declare it has found an alternative. There is precedence for this too. The Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second highest religious figure, has been found in such circumstances, with both sides declaring they have identified his reincarnation.

The impact on Tibet over this intellectual struggle for legitimate moral and religious control of the Tibetan culture, and additionally throughout the Himalayan region is bound to be unsettling. China has already proved it can send mass troops to Tibet, effectively seal its borders and prevent international coverage on what is happening in the region. Yet to do so may lead to claims of genocide or ethnic cleansing if the situation deteriorates, becomes violent and troops start opening fire. That would be almost intolerable for a China that strives for international acceptance and recognition. International condemnation would be swift, and pressures heaped on foreign investors to leave or scale down investment into China would be immense. There is precedence also for this too. The Holiday Inn, Tibet’s only foreign branded hotel, pulled out of Lhasa several years ago following pressure from its shareholders over Chinese policy in Tibet. No foreign hotel chain has entered the Tibetan market since.

The Dalai Lama’s meeting with President Obama is indicative that despite China’s rise to global prominence, it has still not managed to find a solution to the Tibet problem. In fact, the current social situation in China has deteriorated since the Olympics rather than improving as was the stated aim. With Facebook and other social media sites blocked, YouTube inaccessible, Wikipedia increasingly censored and news filtered through state approvals processes, China is experimenting with a dangerous journey towards self isolation, the stunting of its national intellect, the withdrawal of global intercourse, and a slowly increasing paranoia. It doesn’t have to be this way. China needs to find a morally and religiously acceptable change of policy towards Tibet and the Dalai Lama fairly soon if it is not to head down a path that will ultimately lead to far greater problems and pressures than an elderly 75-year-old Buddhist monk meeting with the president of the United States.

About the Author

Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the publisher of 2point6billion.com and the founding partner of Dezan Shira & Associates, who have been doing business in China for over 20 years and maintain business advisors and accountants in Guangzhou, Beijing and other cities around China. Chris also writes for the China business news website, China-Briefing.

Tibet : Cry of The Snow Lion (Part 1/10)

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Tibet, Tibet $13.99 At different times in its history Tibet has been renowned for pacifism and martial prowess, enlightenment and cruelty. The Dalai Lama may be the only religious leader who can inspire the devotion of agnostics. Patrick French has been fascinated by Tibet since he was a teenager. He has read its history, agitated for its freedom, and risked arrest to travel through its remote interior. His love and knowledge inform every page of this learned, literate, and impassioned book. Talking with nomads and Buddhist nuns, exiles and collaborators, French portrays a nation demoralized by a half-century of Chinese occupation and forced to depend on the patronage of Western dilettantes. He demolishes many of the myths accruing to Tibet–including those centering around the radiant figure of the Dalai Lama. Combining the best of history, travel writing, and memoir, Tibet, Tibet is a work of extraordinary power and insight. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Tibet Tibet $9.89 At different times in its history Tibet has been renowned for pacifism and martial prowess enlightenment and cruelty. The Dalai Lama may be the only religious leader who can inspire the devotion of agnostics. Patrick French has been fascinated by Tibet since he was a teenager. He has read its history agitated for its freedom and risked arrest to travel through its remote interior. His love and knowledge inform every page of this learned literate and impassioned book. Talking with nomads and Buddhist nuns exiles and collaborators French portrays a nation demoralized by a half-century of Chinese occupation and forced to depend on the patronage of Western dilettantes. He demolishes many of the myths accruing to Tibet-including those centering around the radiant figure of the Dalai Lama. Combining the best of history travel writing and memoir Tibet Tibet is a work of extraordinary power and insight. From the Trade Paperback edition.