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Role of Credit Rating Agencies in Financial Crisis 2008
Role of Credit Rating Agencies in Financial Crisis 2008
If you have surplus funds and make some investments then what would you do before making investment? And if you want to issue financial instrument or bonds then what would you do to increase the sale of those bonds? The answer is “Rating of that particular instrument” an investor before making an investment always go for its rating by international credit rating agencies, and a bond issuer try to get high rating for that instrument to be trusted by investor. But what happened if ratings issued by these credit rating agencies failed and they consciously or unconsciously overestimate and under estimate a particular financial instrument? This situation happened in 2008 which leads towards financial crisis 2008 when credit rating agencies downgraded securities to speculative grade which they previously rated AAA (highest possible rating on scale).
What a credit rating is: A credit rating measures the ability and willingness of a borrower to pay its debt. The more creditworthy a borrower, the higher a CRA will rate it.
What a credit rating is not: A credit rating is not a buy/sell recommendation. It does not predict profitability.
Who/What CRAs rate:
Within the world of mortgage-backed securities MBSs and collateralized debt obligations CDOs,
CRAs rate:
1. The instrument itself: The rated instruments at the center of the financial crisis include mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs).
2. Institutions holding the instruments: An instrument’s rating affects the credit ratings of the investing institution. As of mid-2008, most MBSs were held by foreign investors (20%), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (16%), and commercial banks (16%). Key CDO investors include banks, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds.
3. The issuers of the financial instrument
Most MBSs are issued by:
(1) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are U.S. government-sponsored enterprises; and
(2) Banks: the top MBS issuers in 2007 were Countrywide, J.P. Morgan, GMAC, Lehman Bros., and Citigroup.
CDOs are issued primarily by banks.Top CDO issuers in 2007 were Merrill Lynch, Citibank, and UBS.
Credit ratings affect issuers and investors: A borrower with a high credit rating can raise capital at a lower cost than a borrower with a low credit rating, because investors who take on risk expect to be compensated with higher rates of return/interest rates on the risky investments.
Credit ratings of an instrument may change over time.
A downgrade suggests a higher default risk and therefore makes the downgraded instrument less valuable. CRAs downgraded billions of dollars in MBSs and CDOs over the past year. Investors holding those downgraded instruments watched their investments crash down in value.
Brief History of Credit Rating Agencies and the Term “NRSRO”
The first credit rating agency in the world was established in the aftermath of a financial crisis. In 1841, Louis Tappan established the first mercantile credit agency in New York to rate merchants’ ability to pay their financial obligations. A similar mercantile rating agency followed suit in 1849. These mercantile agencies became the predecessors of credit rating agencies (“CRAs”) as we know them today.
Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization, or “NRSRO” is a relatively recent term, but credit rating agencies have existed for over a hundred years. In fact Standard & Poor’s traces its origins to the 1860 publication of Henry Poor’s History of Railroads and Canals in the United States, a precursor of modern stock reporting and analysis. John Moody & Company published Moody’s Manual of Industrial and Miscellaneous Securities in 1900, the company’s founding year. The manual provided information and statistics on stocks and bonds of financial institutions, government agencies, manufacturing, mining, utilities, and food companies. Fitch Ratings was founded in 1913 and began as a publisher of financial statistics; in 1924, the Fitch Publishing Company introduced the “AAA” to “D” rating scale. When the rating agencies were first established they did not operate under the “issuer-pay” model – their ratings were purchased by subscribers.
Source: www.markuskrebsz.co.uk
Role Credit Rating Agencies did play in Financial Crisis 2008
Credit rating agencies played a very important role at various stages in the subprime crisis. They have been highly criticized for understating the risk involved with new, complex securities that fueled the United States housing bubble, such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO).
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported in January 2011 that:
“The three credit rating agencies were key enablers of the financial meltdown. The mortgage-related securities at the heart of the crisis could not have been marketed and sold without their seal of approval. Investors relied on them, often blindly. In some cases, they were obligated to use them, or regulatory capital standards were hinged on them. This crisis could not have happened without the rating agencies. Their ratings helped the market rise and their downgrades through 2007 and 2008 wreaked havoc across markets and firms.”
Economist Joseph Stiglitz stated:
“I view the rating agencies as one of the key culprits…They were the party that performed the alchemy that converted the securities from F-rated to A-rated. The banks could not have done what they did without the complicity of the rating agencies.”
CRAs helped to develop the MBSs and CDOs that sparked the crisis
CRAs advised issuerson how to structure and prioritize the tranches of an MBS or a CDO. The goal was to help issuers grasp the maximum profit from a CDO or an MBS by maximizing the size of its highest rated tranches. The purpose of tranchingis to create at least one class of assets with a higher credit rating than the average rating of a CDO or an MBS’s underlying asset pool.
According to the math, huge amounts of risk disappeared when you pooled risky assets together in a CDO.
The key assumption was that although some loans might default at the same time, not all of them would default simultaneously. For example, you assumed the chances of two third of the loans defaulting at the same time were close to zero, you could split the CDO into a risky piece and safer piece. Then the safer piece would be rated AAA. CDO based on exactly this assumption. The banks and rating agencies assumed that, although some of the mortgage loans in the pool might default at the same time, the likelihood of more than one third defaulting together was basically zero.
Rating mistakes
As foreclosures are increasing, MBSs and CDOs backed by MBSs are crumbling. The CRAs admitted that they failed to adequately assess the credit risks in MBSs and CDOs. This failure occurred for several reasons:
1. The CRAs held an over-optimistic view of the housing market. Their rating model assumed that housing prices would continue to increase generally.
2. MBSs and CDOs contain individual mortgages, and at the time of rating, the CRAs knew little about the creditworthiness of individual borrowers behind the mortgages. When rating MBSs and CDOs, the CRAs relied heavily on historical statistical data, not on personal information about each borrower.
3. CRAs underestimated the complexity of the MBSs and CDOs. They failed to take account of interdependencies.
4. The SEC found that the growth in the quantity and complexity of structured finance deals since 2002 proved too much for some CRAs.
5. Disregard of conflicts of interests, and
6. This outline of the ratings dilemma would be inaccurate if it were to focus only on shortcomings on the part of CRAs. It is also true that investors often accepted ratings uncritically and overestimated their significance. Not enough attention was paid to the fact that ratings are only estimates of the relative probability of default or expected loss on a debt instrument. They are not a detailed assessment of risk and say nothing about an instrument’s price quality or liquidity. Ratings are no substitute for investment risk management, particularly as the information provided by CRAs is limited.
Rating actions during the crisis
Rating agencies lowered the credit ratings on $1.9 trillion in mortgage backed securities from Q3 2007 to Q2 2008, another indicator that their initial ratings were not accurate. This places additional pressure on financial institutions to lower the value of their MBS. In turn, this may require these institutions to acquire additional capital, to maintain capital ratios. If this involves the sale of new shares of stock, the value of existing shares is reduced. In other words, ratings downgrades pressure MBS and stock prices lower.
As of July 2008, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had downgraded 902 tranches of U.S. residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) and CDOs of asset-backed securities (ABS) that had been originally rated “triple-A” out of a total of 4,083 tranches originally rated “triple-A;” 466 of those downgrades of “triple-A” securities were to speculative grade ratings. S&P had downgraded a total of 16,381 tranches of U.S. RMBS and CDOs of ABS from all ratings categories out of 31,935 tranches originally rated, over half of all RMBS and CDOs of ABS originally rated by S&P. Since certain types of institutional investors are allowed to only carry investment-grade (e.g., “BBB” and better) assets, there is an increased risk of forced asset sales, which could cause further devaluation.
Conclusion
The financial crisis of 2007-08 has taught us that the confidence of the financial market, once shattered, can’t be quickly restored. In an interconnected world, an apparent liquidity crisis can very quickly turn into a solvency crisis for financial institutions, a balance of payment crisis for sovereign countries and a full-blown crisis of confidence for the entire world. But the silver lining is that, after every crisis in the past, markets have come out strong to forge new beginnings.
The problem with the CDO market, and a good chunk of the financial crisis, is that the participants took complex, highly volatile, highly risky and highly leveraged assets and passed a magic stick over them to turn them into AAA. Unfortunately, this process did nothing to remove the volatility, risk, complexity or leverage. The essence of the issue is that these AAAs that blew up and went to zero (and this is no exaggeration, many former AAA-rated CDOS are utterly worthless) were hopelessly badly designed and/or fraudulently sold.
The rating agencies should have known that this degree of complexity and an AAA rating were fundamentally incompatible, but they were financially incented to ignore it (they got paid much more money for rating CDOs). The investors and insurers should have known it too. The biggest responsibility lies with the sellers and the creators of the bonds – they were selling something that was supposed to be super safe but turned out to be worthless – and they knew this to be the case, one way or the other. In one sentence I can say that financial crisis of 2008 was actually a “Triple-A” crisis.
By:
Ammara Sattar
Lecturer in Commerce
E Mail: ammarasattar@yahoo.com
About the Author
My area of curiosity is finance and I am very keen to research. presently i am serving Govt College of Commerce, Sabzazar as Lecturer in Commerce.
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Combo: Tenergy T-3150 Smart AA/AAA NiMH/NiCd + 12 Premium AAA 1000mAh NiMH Rechargeable Batteries $55.99 .r1 {color#900;}Tenergy T-3150 Fast ChargerRecharges 1-2pcs AA or AAA Ni-MH batteries in 2 hours, and 3-4pcs batteries in 4 hours with switching power technology – high efficiency, compact size & light weight With worldwide input for 100-240V AC 50/60HZ 4 independent channels for quick charge/trickle charge/bad cell detection ( Mixed AA and AAA cells is acceptiable) Equipped with a dual LED lamp to indicate proper charging Automatic charging current selection for AA & AAA batteries Intelligent microprocessor controlled With negative delta V cut-off function Temperature sensors to avoid the battery from being damaged by over-heating Safety timer controlled Especially designed for rechargeable batteries used in Digital Camera & Pocket PC PackingEach in a clamshell packTenergy Premium AAA 1000 mAh NiMH Rechargeable Batteries Premium quality AAA Size 1000mAh rechargeable Nickel Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) battery, top of line.Exact replacement for standard AAA size battery in all the devicesProvides ultra long use time per charge with this super high 1000mAh capacity for AAA sizeAdvanced Ni-MH technology means twice longer use life per charge than the ordinary rechargeablesDesigned for enhanced performance for high drain applications suchas digital cameras, CD players, portable audio devices, hand heldgames, 2-way radios, PDAs, and other portable high drain digitalelectronicsCan be recharged for up to 1000 times, providing big saving by replacing hundreds of throw away AAA batteries.Convenient operation without memory effect. Can be charged anytime.Can be rapidly charged with any quick charger, smart chargers, plug in charger or universal chargersWeight per cell 0.4ozDimensions45mmx11mmBattery tested based on International Electronic Commission (IEC) standard to ensure capacity, quality and life timeDownload product data sheet here. Other NiMH Rechargeable Battery Combos Also Available Looking for AA Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for AAA Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for C Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for D Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for Mix of Various Size Battery Combo Kits? Click Here Looking for Charger Combo Packages? Click Here |
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AAA Quality Fine 100 Inch Pearl Necklace $899 This is finer version of our 100" pearl strand, featuring AAA pearls, a beautiful round high-nacre quality. If you are looking for a show stopping pearl necklace, then this super long strand of 320-350 pearls is exactly what you want. Double it, triple it, quadruple it, add drama with your fashionable flair. This necklace is an outrageous 100 inches long and each pearl measures 7-8mm. Wrap it around your neck twice for a modern daytime look, then at night wrap it around four times for an evening appropriate style. This necklace is also 100 inches in length. |
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HighTech AAA Battery 8 Pack $8.32 Energizer HighTech is a super premium alkaline battery which gives extra performance for today’s active lifestyle. Energizer High Tech is ideal for the kind of contemporary devices which need a little bit of extra power, such as wireless mice, toys and digital radios. |
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HighTech AAA Battery 4 Pack $4.79 Energizer HighTech is a super premium alkaline battery which gives extra performance for today’s active lifestyle. Energizer High Tech is ideal for the kind of contemporary devices which need a little bit of extra power, such as wireless mice, toys and digital radios. |
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Combo: Tenergy TN156 4-Bay AA/AAA NiMH LCD Battery Charger + 3 Cards Centura AAA Batteries (12pcs) $29.99 .r2 {color#F00;}.r5 {color#F00;}.b2 {color#630;}.r1 {color#900;}Combo Includes:Tenergy TN156 4-Bay AA/AAA NiMH LCD Battery Charger 3 Cards (12pcs) Premium AAA NiMH Rechargeable BatteriesTenergy TN156 4-Bay AA/AAA NiMH LCD Battery Charger Worldwide voltage for 100-240V AC input. Micro-processor control (-Delta V detection) which automatically controls the charging process. Four independent charging channels for individual battery charging and detection. Constant charging current mode; trickle current when fully charged. Eight hours charging time cut-off to ensure safety.Operation Instructions:1. Insert 1 to 4 pieces of 1.2V AA/AAA rechargeable Ni-MH batteries into the battery compartment. 2. Make correct contact with polarity (+ and -) according to the sign in the battery compartment.3. Before charging, insert the batteries into the channels then connect the adapter plug to the power supply:- LCD will light up in red to indicate proper charging. – When charging is finished, extract the plug and batteries. Easy-to-Read LCD Indicators:Specifications Input100-240V ~ 50/60Hz 0.2A Output:AA 1.2V x 2 ————–1000mA AA 1.2V x 4 ————– 500mA AAA 1.2V x 2 ———— 500mA AAA 1.2V x 4 ———— 250mABest use with Tenergy Centura Low Self-Discharge Rechargeable Batteries. Tenergy Premium Rechargeable Batteries. Download product instruction manual here.Centura AAA NiMH Rechargeable Batteries High quality AAA Size 800mAh rechargeable Nickel Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) battery, top of line. combines all the features of the alkaline battery (Ready to Use) with the benefits of rechargeable battery Very slow self discharge maintains 85% residual capacity after 1year of storage and 70% residual capacity after 2 years of storage Exact replacement for standard AAA size battery in all the devices Provides ultra long use time per charge with this super high 800mAh capacity for AAA size Advanced Ni-MH technology means twice longer use life per charge than the ordinary rechargeables Designed for enhanced performance for high drain applications suchas digital cameras, CD players, portable audio devices, hand heldgames, 2-way radios, PDAs, and other portable high drain digitalelectronics Can be recharged for up to 1000 times, providing big saving by replacing hundreds of throw away AAA batteries. Convenient operation without memory effect. Can be charged anytime. Can be rapidly charged with any quick charger, smart chargers, plug in charger or universal chargers Weight per cell 0.03 lbs Battery tested based on International Electronic Commission (IEC) standard to ensure capacity, quality and life timeOther NiMH Rechargeable Battery Combos Also Available Looking for AA Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for AAA Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for C Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for D Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for Mix of Various Size Battery Combo Kits? Click Here Looking for Charger Combo P |
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Combo: Tenergy T-1000 Smart AA/AAA NiMH/NiCd + 12 Premium AAA 1000mAh NiMH Rechargeable Batteries $48.99 .r1 {color#900;}Tenergy T-1000 Fast Dual Use Charger Great deal on a fast charger for both in house and travel chargingRecharges 2 or 4 pieces of size AAA, AA Ni-MH & Ni-Cd batteries in 2-3 hoursIncludes “intelligent” microprocessor controlled charging. Identifies defective cells and a safety timer for complete overcharge protectionPowered by an external AC adaptor for both indoor use or for in car usageAlso recharges inside a car with the included cigarette lighter that you can plug to your 12V car batteryNegative Delta V Cut off feature to 100% protect your batteriesWith mechanical design against wrong polarity and short circuit protectionAutomatic charge current selection for AA & AAA batteriesRed LED indicates charging; green LED indicates charging completed and charger is in “trickle charge” modeEspecially designed for rechargeable batteries used in Digital Camera, Handheld PC, PAD, Game Boy and CD players and other high drain rate electronic devices.Input120VTenergy Premium 1000 mAh Rechargeable Batteries Premium quality AAA Size 1000mAh rechargeable Nickel Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) battery, top of line.Exact replacement for standard AAA size battery in all the devicesProvides ultra long use time per charge with this super high 1000mAh capacity for AAA sizeAdvanced Ni-MH technology means twice longer use life per charge than the ordinary rechargeablesDesigned for enhanced performance for high drain applications suchas digital cameras, CD players, portable audio devices, hand heldgames, 2-way radios, PDAs, and other portable high drain digitalelectronicsCan be recharged for up to 1000 times, providing big saving by replacing hundreds of throw away AAA batteries.Convenient operation without memory effect. Can be charged anytime.Can be rapidly charged with any quick charger, smart chargers, plug in charger or universal chargersWeight per cell 0.4ozDimensions45mmx11mmBattery tested based on International Electronic Commission (IEC) standard to ensure capacity, quality and life timeDownload product manual here. Other NiMH Rechargeable Battery Combos Also Available Looking for AA Only Battery Combos? Click HereLooking for AAA Only Battery Combos? Click HereLooking for C Only Battery Combos? Click HereLooking for D Only Battery Combos? Click HereLooking for Mix of Various Size Battery Combo Kits? Click HereLooking for Charger Combo Packages? Click Here |
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Dorcy International 1 AAA Cell Aluminum Keychain Light 464001 $23.27 Flashlight. Built in keychain ring. Water resistant. Super bright Krypton bulb. Aluminum. Includes 1 AAA cell battery. 2.73 x 0.60 x 3.53 . 0.11 lbs. Length: 2.73. Width: 3.53. Height: 0.6 |
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Procell Micro (AAA) Alkaline Batterien 10 Stück $9.95 Die Super-Starken Alkalie Batterien für Uhren, Fernbedienungen, Gameboy ® u.s.w. (AA/ LR 06) |
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Plus Micro (AAA) Alkaline Batterien 4er Set $5.9 Die Super-Starken Alkalie Batterien für Uhren, Fernbedienungen, Gameboy u.s.w. (AA/ LR 06) |
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WILMAR WLMW2416 Pen Light 2 AAABatteries $19.86 Features and Benefits:. Super bright bulb. Convenient pocket clip. 2 ldquo;AAArdquo; batteries included. Great Gift idea. |
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LumaGear RP7503 1 LED Anodized Aluminum Flashlight with 1 AAA Battery Asst Colors $22.3 Super Bright LED Last Up to 100 000 Hours. Virtually Indestructible Weatherproof Design. Precision Reflector Creates Smooth Beam. Constructed of Lightweight Anodized Aluminum. Includes 1 AAA Cell Battery. Asst Colors. |
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Combo: Tenergy TN156 4-Bay AA/AAA NiMH LCD Battery Charger + 3 AA & 3 AAA Cards of Centura Batteries (24pcs) $45.99 .r2 {color#F00;}.r5 {color#F00;}.b2 {color#630;}.r1 {color#900;}Tenergy TN156 4-Bay AA/AAA NiMH LCD Battery Charger Worldwide voltage for 100-240V AC input. Micro-processor control (-Delta V detection) which automatically controls the charging process. Four independent charging channels for individual battery charging and detection. Constant charging current mode; trickle current when fully charged. Eight hours charging time cut-off to ensure safety.Operation Instructions:1. Insert 1 to 4 pieces of 1.2V AA/AAA rechargeable Ni-MH batteries into the battery compartment. 2. Make correct contact with polarity (+ and -) according to the sign in the battery compartment.3. Before charging, insert the batteries into the channels then connect the adapter plug to the power supply:- LCD will light up in red to indicate proper charging. – When charging is finished, extract the plug and batteries. Easy-to-Read LCD Indicators:Specifications Input100-240V ~ 50/60Hz 0.2A Output:AA 1.2V x 2 ————–1000mA AA 1.2V x 4 ————– 500mA AAA 1.2V x 2 ———— 500mA AAA 1.2V x 4 ———— 250mABest use with Tenergy Centura Low Self-Discharge Rechargeable Batteries. Tenergy Premium Rechargeable Batteries. Download product instruction manual here.Centura AA/AAA NiMH Rechargeable Batteries High quality AA/AAA Size 2000mAh/800mAh rechargeable Nickel Metal Hydride (Ni-MH) battery – top of line! Combines all the features of the alkaline battery (Ready to Use) with the benefits of rechargeable battery. Very slow self discharge maintains 85% residual capacity after 1year of storage and 70% residual capacity after 2 years of storage. Exact replacement for standard AA/AAA size battery in all devices. Provides ultra long use time per charge with this super high 2000mAh/800mAh capacity for AA/AAA size. Advanced Ni-MH technology means twice longer use life per charge than the ordinary rechargeables. Designed for enhanced performance for high drain applications (i.e., digital cameras, CD players, portable audio devices, hand heldgames, 2-way radios, PDAs, and other portable high drain digitalelectronics). Can be recharged for up to 1000 times, providing big saving by replacing hundreds of throw away AA/AAA batteries. Convenient operation without memory effect. Can be charged anytime. Can be rapidly charged with any quick charger, smart chargers, plug in charger or universal chargers. 6 months warranty. Battery tested based on International Electronic Commission (IEC) standard to ensure capacity, quality and life time.Includes:Tenergy TN156 4-Bay AA/AAA NiMH LCD Battery Charger.Car Charging Adapter Cable. 3 Cards (12pcs) Premium AA NiMH Rechargeable Batteries. 3 Cards (12pcs) Premium AAA NiMH Rechargeable Batteries.Other NiMH Rechargeable Battery Combos Also Available Looking for AA Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for AAA Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for C Only Battery Combos? Click Here Looking for D Only Battery C |
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Dorcy International 41-1502 AAA 4 LED Flashlight, Red $8.02 Dorcy International 41-1502 AAA 4 LED Flashlight, Red The 3AA 4 LED Personal Palm Light provides super bright light with 4 white 5MM LEDs. The durable switch is long lasting and the compact design makes this light convenient and easy to carry. The 3AA 4 LED Personal Palm Light comes complete with 3 AA cell batteries. The personal palm light is available in assorted colors â red, blue, and yellow. Dorcy International 41-1502 AAA 4 LED Flashlight, Red Features: Lumens: 15 Run Time: 48 Hours Beam Distance: 8 Feet Bulb Type: LED Batteries: 3 AA Product Material: ABS Product Dimensions: 4.8″L x 2.95″W Product Weight: .15 lbs Switch: On/Off UPC# 035355415025 |